Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafee…7855 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day185.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$81
politics 11% −$3
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 58% -12.8%
≤30d 33 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 58% -12.8%
≤90d 33 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 58% -12.8%
all 33 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 58% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 58% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 33% -21.1%
15% -33.4% 15% -28.7%
20% -39.9% 3% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$33 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Open positions10
Markets (closed)33 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day185.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 79¢ 94¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 63¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 82¢ 84¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 83¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $66 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $205 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $253 −$151 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $226 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $71 +$27 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $152 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $227 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $56 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $76 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $81 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $86 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $127 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $126 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$9 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.19 · official $434.08 (match) · 231 history records