Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xafed…2fba other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%58W / 73L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$6
other 26% −$2
politics 10% +$2
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 11% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 29 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 7% -9.5%
all 131 +0.1% -9.5% 44% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses58 / 73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage444d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $223 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $76 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $114 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $99 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $316 −$4 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $232 −$5 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $175 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $205 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $113 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $171 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $230 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $115 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $115 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 -4%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 18 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Aug 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 04 $7 $0 -1%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 03 $6 $0 +6%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1? Aug 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 59m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 59m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $98 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $115 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $110 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $76 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $85 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $78 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $97 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $115 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 504 history records