Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafe8…42cc crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$824 (-1%) realized −$759 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%72W / 71L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$696per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,483
7 days+$1,489
14 days+$103
30 days−$4,633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 42% −$1,632
other 22% −$3,468
world 15% +$1,522
crypto 10% −$2,226
sports 9% +$3,392
politics 2% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +50.3% +36.0% 49% 44% -5.4%
≤30d 82 +13.8% +3.0% 39% 30% -15.3%
≤90d 143 +9.0% -1.4% 50% 39% -11.6%
all 143 +9.0% -1.4% 50% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 39% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 29% -20.0%
15% -19.4% 22% -27.8%
20% -27.3% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$870) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$310 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$4,631
Realized−$759
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions4
Markets (closed)143 / 147
History coverage64d
Avg bet$696
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $3,000 $2,964 −$36 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1,500 $1,475 −$25 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,387 +$643 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $517 −$505 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$114 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $213 −$210 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 −$17 -4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $230 −$96 -42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $614 +$1,886 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,517 −$1,517 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $503 −$503 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1,012 +$127 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2,029 −$1,494 -74%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,007 −$3,007 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$347 +226%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$704 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$340 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $206 +$3,020 +1469%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $1,858 +$895 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$168 +33%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $460 −$185 -40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $602 +$58 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $528 +$72 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,727 +$1,034 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $511 +$1,410 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,014 +$2,231 +111%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,007 −$991 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,021 −$989 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1,000 −$46 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $67 +$7 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $324 +$171 +53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $5,138 +$558 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,640 −$101 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 08 $3,011 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 07 $304 −$15 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 07 $504 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,532 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $3,052 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $466 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $1,014 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $707 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $680 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $61 20h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $152 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $488 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 21h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $184 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 28¢ $134 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $165 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $409 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 45h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 46¢ $228 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 46¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,630.74 · official $4,630.74 (match) · 1210 history records