Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xafe6…8192 crypto 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,742 (+16%) realized +$18,131 · open −$2,389
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%51W / 394L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day185.1pace
Fees−$751est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$32,153
sports 28% +$18,764
politics 5% +$3,982
world 2% +$969
other 0% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 341 -71.3% -74.0% 8% 8% -83.2%
≤30d 445 -57.2% -61.2% 11% 11% -72.4%
≤90d 445 -57.2% -61.2% 11% 11% -72.4%
all 445 -57.2% -61.2% 11% 11% -72.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.2% 11% -72.4%
10% -65.0% 11% -75.1%
15% ← realistic here -68.3% 10% -77.5%
20% -71.4% 10% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$750) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,344 vs −$561 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,951
Realized+$18,131
Unrealized−$2,389
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses51 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$751
Open positions8
Markets (closed)445 / 149
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$649
Trades / day185.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 38¢ 36¢ $760 $730 −$30 (-4%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 47¢ 46¢ $470 $465 −$5 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $110 $275 +$165 (+150%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 54¢ $105 $267 +$162 (+155%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 31¢ 32¢ $158 $161 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2,182 $31 −$2,152 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $156 $21 −$135 (-86%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? No 20¢ 0¢ $399 $1 −$398 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 407 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 15 $340 −$340 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 15 $1,630 −$1,630 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 20? Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 15 $570 −$570 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 15 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 7? Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $607 −$607 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $1,392 −$813 -58%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 15 $264 −$264 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 11? Jun 15 $248 −$248 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? Jun 15 $3,123 −$3,123 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? Jun 15 $217 −$217 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 3? Jun 15 $689 −$689 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Jun 15 $550 −$550 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Jelena Ostapenko vs Alexandra Eala Jun 15 $1,654 −$1,654 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? Jun 15 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 21? Jun 15 $792 −$792 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 3? Jun 15 $36 +$5,982 +16515%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Jun 15 $1,036 −$1,036 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $1,764 −$1,764 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? Jun 15 $1,236 −$1,236 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 24? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 15 $893 −$893 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 15 $2,445 −$519 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? Jun 15 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi Jun 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? Jun 15 $629 −$629 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $855 −$855 -100%
Miami Open: Iva Jovic vs Talia Gibson Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8PM ET Jun 15 $243 −$243 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? Jun 15 $431 −$431 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? Jun 15 $913 −$913 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 16? Jun 15 $229 −$229 -100%
Mexican Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Jun 15 $260 −$260 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 2? Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 31¢ $29 59m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 31¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 31¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 20¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 20¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 20¢ $85 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 20¢ $119 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 31¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 20¢ $178 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 19¢ $21 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 31¢ $20 2h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 37¢ $377 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $113 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $477 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $3,560 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $22 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,175 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $2,794 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $71 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $77 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,755 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $577 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,560 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $320 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $700 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 30¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,951.40 · official $1,951.40 (match) · 3500 history records