Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafe4…f3f7 sports 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62,139 (+11%) realized +$62,265 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%129W / 160L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,124per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$9,115est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$31,462
other 1% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -50.6% -55.3% 25% 25% -73.3%
≤30d 125 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 42% -31.9%
≤90d 289 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 44% -10.7%
all 289 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 44% -10.7%
10% -14.9% 44% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 44% -27.0%
20% -30.7% 42% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$3,028) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,522 vs −$2,081 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$14,403
Realized+$62,265
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses129 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$9,115
Open positions5
Markets (closed)289 / 277
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$2,124
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $4,248 $4,360 +$112 (+3%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Seattle Storm 53¢ 52¢ $3,767 $3,661 −$107 (-3%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) Seattle Storm 57¢ 56¢ $2,881 $2,805 −$76 (-3%)
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Seattle Storm 30¢ 30¢ $2,013 $1,979 −$34 (-2%)
Valencia vs. Barcelona Valencia 73¢ 72¢ $1,620 $1,598 −$22 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 20 $1,149 −$1,149 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Jun 20 $3,652 −$3,652 -100%
Wonju DB Promy vs. Daegu Pegasus Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 20 $1,331 −$1,331 -100%
Spurs vs. Heat Jun 20 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 20 $4,820 −$4,820 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies: 1H Moneyline Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Magic Jun 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers: 1H Moneyline Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons Jun 20 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 20 $996 −$996 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 20 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Hawks Jun 20 $1,324 −$1,324 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Jun 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Jun 20 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Pacers vs. Kings Jun 20 $3,574 −$3,574 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 20 $2,489 −$2,489 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10,298 −$4,140 -40%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $2,600 +$2,400 +92%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4,029 +$2,831 +70%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $14 +$25 +179%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $3,850 −$3,785 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $407 +$253 +62%
Spread: Paris Basketball (-7.5) Jun 17 $68 +$32 +48%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $1,041 +$1,164 +112%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $827 +$254 +31%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $415 −$410 -99%
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Jun 14 $6 +$8 +140%
Spread: Gimnasia (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$86 +86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $3,793 −$3,742 -99%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $119 −$117 -98%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $1,206 −$1,179 -98%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $472 +$1,022 +216%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $4,315 +$6,038 +140%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 12 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $926 −$926 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 11 $2,030 −$2,030 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $355 +$132 +37%
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Jun 10 $1,596 +$674 +42%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $139 −$137 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $2,999 −$2,935 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $3,360 +$3,640 +108%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 10 $3,080 +$3,920 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $114 28m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $243 28m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $9 28m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $39 29m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $4 29m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $4 29m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $1 29m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $3 29m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $36 29m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $7 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $13 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $134 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $1 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $9 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $107 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $1 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $3 30m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $1 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $1 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $3 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $3 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $4 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $4 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $36 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $15 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $15 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $1 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $152 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) BUY Seattle Storm 57¢ $5 31m
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 53¢ $179 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,403.41 · official $14,403.41 (match) · 3500 history records