Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafde…3e1d weather 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35,856 (+48%) realized +$38,439 · open −$2,583
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%81W / 276L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day176.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$988
7 days+$831
14 days+$5,390
30 days+$35,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$2,431
weather 34% +$29,595
sports 1% +$5,500
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -20.2% -27.8% 18% 15% -0.7%
≤30d 357 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 20% +96.1%
≤90d 357 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 20% +96.1%
all 357 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 20% +96.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 20% +96.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 17% +77.3%
15% -20.4% 16% +60.2%
20% -28.2% 14% +44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +135% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +135% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +36% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$560 vs −$37 · ×15.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.48 per $1 lost it wins $4.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$9,845
Realized+$38,439
Unrealized−$2,583
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses81 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)357 / 371
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day176.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 75¢ $4,850 $7,279 +$2,429 (+50%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 25¢ $4,850 $2,420 −$2,430 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $141 $115 −$26 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? No 11¢ 14¢ $15 $19 +$5 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $34 $1 −$33 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$28 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? No 2¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$78 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$41 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $42 +$180 +433%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $112 +$64 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $123 +$1,105 +898%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $86 −$38 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $251 +$225 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 −$35 -65%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$17 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 −$25 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $460 +$71 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $13 −$9 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $92 −$86 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $88 −$62 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$30 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 −$15 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 −$74 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$4 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 8m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 14m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $13 23m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 24m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 24m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $83 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $10 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $27 30m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 30m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 34m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 52m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,845.03 · official $9,839.74 (match) · 3500 history records