Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafdd…d424
crypto · 164 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$156 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$173 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses83 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage66d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$19
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$26 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$8 +444%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$32 +304%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$5 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% +$7
politics 29% −$193
sports 3% +$9
other 3% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 41% -12.3%
≤30d 141 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 45% -8.3%
≤90d 164 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 43% -23.4%
all 164 +3.7% -6.2% 51% 43% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 43% -23.4%
10% -15.1% 39% -30.7%
15% -23.3% 35% -37.4%
20% -30.9% 26% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records