Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xafdb…c380 sports 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$94 (+0%) realized +$96 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%57W / 64L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$35
other 24% −$90
sports 11% +$340
world 11% −$126
economics 10% +$24
crypto 3% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.9% -37.5% 17% 0% -19.0%
≤30d 9 -21.4% -28.9% 22% 0% -16.6%
≤90d 53 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 17% -9.9%
all 121 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 29% -9.4%
10% -14.3% 29% -18.0%
15% -22.5% 29% -26.0%
20% -30.1% 27% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses57 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage220d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $54 $52 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $82 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$95 -96%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $295 −$12 -4%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $348 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 20 $56 −$4 -7%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $30 $0 -1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 22 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 22 $10 +$5 +55%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 22 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 22 $11 +$9 +86%
UFC 327: Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado (Welterweight, Early Preli Apr 20 $13 +$7 +57%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 10 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $500 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $300 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $1,379 +$2 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $300 $0 -0%
Credit One Charleston Open: Eva Lys vs Katie Volynets Mar 31 $16 +$14 +91%
Penguins vs. Islanders Mar 31 $23 +$26 +113%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $23 +$28 +121%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $700 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 28 $300 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 28 $650 +$3 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $776 +$2 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 25 $1,839 −$1 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $200 +$1 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 25 $23 +$28 +122%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Mar 25 $23 +$24 +108%
Dubrovnik: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Mar 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $700 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $300 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $300 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $56 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $4 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $138 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $42 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $18 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $35 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $141 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $146 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $84 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $50 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $52 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $65 29d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL Yes $52 29d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 29d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 43d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 43d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 46d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $60 46d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $60 48d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $30 48d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $30 56d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 62¢ $12 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.75 · official $51.75 (match) · 530 history records