Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafd8…754b world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%8W / 34L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 18% +$10
politics 14% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 7% −$2
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 11 +7.4% -2.9% 27% 9% -8.8%
≤90d 14 +5.1% -4.9% 21% 7% -9.0%
all 42 +5.3% -4.7% 19% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 5% -8.3%
10% -13.8% 5% -17.1%
15% -22.1% 5% -25.1%
20% -29.8% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses8 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage254d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $44 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $4 +$4 +88%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 12 $6 +$10 +186%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 04 $8 −$2 -29%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $2 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $13 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $21 40h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $38 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $38 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $38 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 9¢ $8 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.80 · official $33.82 (match) · 143 history records