Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AF 0xafd6…2d1b sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$52 (+98%) realized +$52 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip

Net edge+98%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+105.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+127.4%	+105.7%	44%	44%	+115.6%
≤30d	9	+127.4%	+105.7%	44%	44%	+115.6%
≤90d	9	+127.4%	+105.7%	44%	44%	+115.6%
all	9	+127.4%	+105.7%	44%	44%	+115.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+105.7%	44%	+115.6%
10%	+86.0%	44%	+94.9%
15%	+68.1%	44%	+76.1%
20%	+51.6%	44%	+58.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +138% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +127% · $-wt +138% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$4 · ×5.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.72 per $1 lost it wins $4.72

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$52

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$12	+$11	+93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$4	+$48	+1156%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$6	+$19	+307%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$8	+$7	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	50¢	$31	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$4	2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$12	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	5¢	$4	2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$4	28h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$4	28h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	11¢	$4	28h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$4	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$6	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$3	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $3.90 (match) · 16 history records