Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafd2…7260
other · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,382 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$1,382
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 24 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,429 $1,251 −$179 (-12%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $911 $923 +$12 (+1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 37¢ $714 $714 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $933 $700 −$233 (-25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $678 $593 −$85 (-12%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,180 $590 −$590 (-50%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $511 $518 +$7 (+1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 51¢ $440 $431 −$8 (-2%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $525 $394 −$131 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $264 $293 +$30 (+11%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $390 $292 −$97 (-25%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $296 $292 −$4 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $238 $221 −$17 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $231 $219 −$13 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $234 $202 −$32 (-14%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $138 $124 −$14 (-10%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $117 $121 +$4 (+4%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $103 $101 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $100 −$20 (-17%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 12¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 12¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-18%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 20¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ $31 $23 −$8 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $9,972 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Feb 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% $0
other 48% −$1,404
crypto 2% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $620 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 37¢ $728 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $11 2h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $0 9h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $1 14h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $1 14h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $4 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $8 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $1 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $6 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $5 16h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 19¢ $10 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $49 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $3 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $6 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $3 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $2 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $6 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $23 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $6 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $6 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $16 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $23 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $40 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $155 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $1 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 34¢ $58 23h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $29 23h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $2 25h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 5 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,253.86 · official $8,254.13 (match) · 132 history records