Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafd0…ce9c crypto 560 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$376 (+1%) realized +$386 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%318W / 241L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$66
sports 2% −$41
finance 1% +$38
other 1% −$15
world 0% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 50% -17.9%
≤30d 2 -9.2% -17.9% 50% 50% -17.9%
≤90d 11 -43.3% -48.7% 27% 27% -38.0%
all 559 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -9.2%
10% -21.9% 34% -17.9%
15% -29.4% 25% -25.8%
20% -36.4% 19% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$29 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$386
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses318 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)559 / 560
History coverage131d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $201 $191 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $114 +$93 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 13 $77 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 13 $30 +$7 +24%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $100 +$130 +130%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 27 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 22 $101 −$31 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 22 $200 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 21 $100 −$68 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 21 $110 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 21 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 21 $376 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 21 $110 +$25 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 21 $374 −$14 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 21 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 21 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 21 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 20 $200 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 20 $101 −$77 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 20 $110 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 20 $200 +$42 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$68 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 20 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 20 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 20 $100 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 20 $100 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 19 $483 +$60 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 19 $110 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 19 $100 +$35 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 19 $110 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 19 $111 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 19 $110 +$28 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 19 $100 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $207 10m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $207 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $114 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $114 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $67 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $37 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $30 69d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 1¢ $100 70d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Azamat Murzakanov 35¢ $50 70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 90¢ $56 70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 95¢ $18 70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 61¢ $50 70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Curtis Blaydes 80¢ $156 70d
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Curtis Blaydes 25¢ $50 70d
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Chris Duncan 57¢ $103 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $83 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $68 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $100 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $32 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.16 · official $191.16 (match) · 2596 history records