Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafd0…6cb4
crypto · 5 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$201 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$189 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$93
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$189
14 days−$189
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $100 $93 −$6 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% −$6
crypto 41% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $296 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $277 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.2% -60.3% 25% 25% -70.7%
≤30d 4 -56.2% -60.3% 25% 25% -70.7%
≤90d 4 -56.2% -60.3% 25% 25% -70.7%
all 4 -56.2% -60.3% 25% 25% -70.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.3% 25% -70.7%
10% -64.1% 25% -73.5%
15% -67.6% 25% -76.1%
20% -70.8% 25% -78.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.32 · official $93.32 (match) · 13 history records