Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xafcf…72f6 sports 1238 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+1%) realized +$290 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%847W / 383L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$34
14 days−$19
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$416
other 4% −$123
world 4% +$30
finance 3% −$111
weather 1% +$10
crypto 1% −$1
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -14.8% -22.9% 59% 47% -7.1%
≤30d 172 -7.0% -15.8% 69% 40% -7.4%
≤90d 973 +1.2% -8.4% 73% 51% -7.9%
all 1230 +1.7% -8.0% 69% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 50% -8.5%
10% -16.8% 26% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 17% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 13% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$290
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses847 / 383
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1230 / 1238
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Under 87¢ 96¢ $65 $72 +$7 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $34 $22 −$12 (-35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $22 $17 −$5 (-23%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $11 −$2 -21%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $13 +$2 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $37 +$7 +17%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $19 +$16 +82%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $19 +$6 +34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $42 +$8 +18%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 +$1 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $43 +$7 +15%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $6 +$6 +103%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $86 +$14 +16%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $46 +$4 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $8 +$12 +143%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $42 −$29 -68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$5 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $86 +$14 +16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $244 +$35 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$28 -57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $28 −$27 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $12 +$3 +23%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $23 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $46 +$4 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $13 +$2 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $12 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $231 +$119 +52%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $88 −$33 -38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -68%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$7 +233%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$9 +59%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $14 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $13 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 76¢ $7 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 76¢ $12 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $16 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $21 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $6 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $14 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $19 27h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $4 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 84¢ $42 30h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $23 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.14 · official $133.14 (match) · 3481 history records