Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xafce…946e other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$128 (+20%) realized +$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$118
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$103
sports 12% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.4% +0.8% 33% 33% +38.3%
≤30d 8 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 50% +7.2%
≤90d 8 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 50% +7.2%
all 8 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 50% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 50% +7.2%
10% -14.7% 50% -3.0%
15% -23.0% 38% -12.4%
20% -30.5% 38% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$33 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$6 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$48 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$16 -89%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $57 +$33 +58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 −$93 -62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$28 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $97 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $89 7d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $57 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $57 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $150 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $138 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records