Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafca…a656 crypto 584 markets active 5d ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%321W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +0.5% -9.0% 60% 60% -7.7%
≤30d 584 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 55% -13.4%
≤90d 584 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 55% -13.4%
all 584 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 55% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 55% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 54% -21.7%
15% -29.4% 54% -29.2%
20% -36.3% 52% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses321 / 263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)584 / 584
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 584 Trades
no open positions (245 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $1.69 (match) · 959 history records