Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xafca…92b4 sports 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,608 (-8%) realized −$2,585 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%141W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$338est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$81
14 days−$129
30 days−$559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$380
crypto 30% −$2,702
other 0% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +14.4% +3.5% 59% 55% -2.1%
≤30d 65 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 48% -17.0%
≤90d 283 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 49% -17.8%
all 283 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 49% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 49% -17.8%
10% -24.3% 48% -25.7%
15% -31.6% 45% -32.9%
20% -38.3% 40% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$101 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$2,585
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses141 / 142
Est. fees paid−$338
Open positions2
Markets (closed)283 / 285
History coverage66d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants NC Dinos 50¢ 42¢ $62 $52 −$10 (-16%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Samsung Lions 47¢ 26¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$30 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $57 +$41 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $44 +$91 +206%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $30 +$26 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $31 +$44 +145%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $34 +$45 +134%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$17 -28%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $61 +$57 +93%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $26 −$25 -99%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $18 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$13 +34%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $71 −$33 -46%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $71 −$67 -94%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $74 +$75 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$13 +46%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $100 +$116 +116%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $101 +$56 +55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $103 −$102 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 11 $218 −$13 -6%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $49 −$48 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $24 +$14 +59%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. May 28 $52 −$51 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears May 28 $27 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $87 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 28 $206 −$200 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5 May 28 $203 −$203 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 May 28 $291 −$287 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 May 28 $144 −$143 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 28 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) May 28 $360 +$190 +53%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 May 28 $203 +$157 +78%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 May 27 $162 −$160 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 May 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $63 16m
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 47¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $47 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 8h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 8h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $136 9h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 57¢ $57 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 32¢ $44 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 11h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $75 11h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $31 12h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 12h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 42¢ $34 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 61¢ $80 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $118 46h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 51¢ $61 46h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 56¢ $26 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz SELL KT Wiz 100¢ $35 3d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 51¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $38 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 31¢ $38 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 56¢ $71 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Under $4 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $149 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.11 · official $68.11 (match) · 512 history records