Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xafc8…47ef other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+16%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$131
14 days+$151
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$65
sports 35% +$77
crypto 4% +$21
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +63.0% +47.5% 100% 100% +45.5%
≤30d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 51% +7.8%
≤90d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 51% +7.8%
all 59 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 51% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 51% +7.8%
10% -18.4% 42% -2.5%
15% -26.2% 34% -11.9%
20% -33.5% 27% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 +$28 +93%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 26 $54 +$27 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$20 +66%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +69%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$32 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +60%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -28%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +239%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$16 +128%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$8 -54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 58m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 100¢ $81 14h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 57¢ $3 14h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 66¢ $51 14h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 A BUY 35¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $45 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 7d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 39¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $27 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 8d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 9d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records