Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xafc5…741f crypto 832 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$526 (+0%) realized +$532 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%812W / 11L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day70.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$35
14 days+$87
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$653
weather 4% −$89
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 522 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 823 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 823 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.35 per $1 lost it wins $5.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2,384
Realized+$532
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses812 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)823 / 832
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$284
Trades / day70.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $997 $992 −$4 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $608 $608 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $189 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 16 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $1,047 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $280 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 17? Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 16? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 16? Jun 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $996 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $898 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 17? Jun 16 $817 −$11 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $799 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $499 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 16? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $898 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 16? Jun 15 $749 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 16? Jun 15 $230 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $493 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 15? Jun 15 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1,265 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 14? Jun 14 $256 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $142 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $656 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 14? Jun 14 $256 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 15? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 15? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $499 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $608 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $124 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $189 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $997 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $138 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $79 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $34 7h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $27 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $699 10h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $60 10h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $138 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $350 11h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $280 13h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $96 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $120 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $80 14h
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 14h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $85 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $99 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $97 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $22 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,383.56 · official $2,383.56 (match) · 3500 history records