Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafc5…2b1d sports 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,125 (-11%) realized −$4,012 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%63W / 96L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$486est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days−$4
14 days+$965
30 days+$1,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,482
other 2% −$850
crypto 0% −$92
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 35% -9.6%
≤30d 141 -21.6% -29.1% 41% 36% -4.3%
≤90d 159 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 35% -20.5%
all 159 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 35% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 35% -20.5%
10% -38.3% 31% -28.1%
15% -44.2% 25% -35.0%
20% -49.7% 19% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$164 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized−$4,012
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses63 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$486
Open positions4
Markets (closed)159 / 163
History coverage41d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 51¢ 66¢ $317 $406 +$89 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 75¢ 100¢ $150 $200 +$50 (+33%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 42¢ 0¢ $253 $0 −$252 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $16 +$27 +164%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $117 +$83 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $133 +$67 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $129 −$100 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 +$24 +61%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $141 +$59 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $68 −$66 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $40 −$10 -25%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $153 +$147 +96%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $85 −$84 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $214 +$81 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$103 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $153 +$47 +31%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $8 −$8 -93%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$19 +241%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $870 +$630 +72%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $39 +$61 +154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $104 +$37 +35%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $825 −$819 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $137 −$134 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 +$110 +92%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $38 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $289 −$286 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$10 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $88 +$26 +30%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $46 +$54 +119%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $149 +$51 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $59 −$58 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 −$92 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $390 +$23 +6%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$5 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$19 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 40¢ $49 48m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 47¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $113 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 19¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 26¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 28¢ $29 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 50¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $131 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 44¢ $43 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 16¢ $16 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $117 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $29 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $133 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 62¢ $64 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $129 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 38¢ $40 22h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $141 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $12 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 31¢ $32 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $43 26h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $15 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 16¢ $0 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 16¢ $2 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 16¢ $6 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ $29 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 29¢ $44 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $2 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 52¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $610.98 · official $610.98 (match) · 575 history records