Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafc4…8111 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2
politics 21% −$3
other 19% −$3
economics 7% −$1
world 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 182 -0.0% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 158
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage165d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $35 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 15 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $153 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $75 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $162 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $34 14d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $34 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $28 28d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $29 29d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $35 41d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $16 41d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $19 41d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $34 99d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $34 100d
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $36 100d
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $36 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $31 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $31 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $28 100d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $28 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $28 100d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $28 100d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 97¢ $26 100d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $26 101d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $35 101d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $35 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $35 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 95¢ $34 101d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $34 101d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $27 101d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $27 102d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 102d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY No 96¢ $31 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.18 · official $28.18 (match) · 769 history records