Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafbc…a7c0 politics 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%21W / 130L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$17
politics 23% −$10
other 23% −$7
crypto 11% −$5
economics 7% −$6
culture 4% −$2
world 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 49 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 151 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses21 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage159d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $49 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $239 −$2 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $43 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $285 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $47 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $147 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $237 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $226 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $159 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 29 $162 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 28 $343 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 28 $173 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 27 $165 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $706 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $537 −$5 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $363 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 24 $348 −$3 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 22 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $713 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $371 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 21 $193 −$2 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $174 +$1 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $172 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 57m
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 95¢ $49 7d
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 96¢ $50 7d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $49 19d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 94¢ $49 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $43 32d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $43 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $42 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $42 66d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $63 66d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $63 67d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $41 67d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $41 67d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 95¢ $53 67d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 95¢ $53 67d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 67d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 68d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $48 68d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $48 68d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $37 68d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $37 68d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $52 68d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $52 68d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $53 68d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $53 69d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $42 69d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $43 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $53 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.21 · official $50.21 (match) · 619 history records