Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xafbc…a8b5 crypto 1675 markets active 4d ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%888W / 753L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days+$33
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -8.2% -17.0% 49% 49% -15.5%
≤30d 541 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 55% -4.5%
≤90d 1581 +1.1% -8.6% 54% 54% -6.5%
all 1641 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 54% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 54% -7.7%
10% -17.9% 54% -16.5%
15% -25.9% 53% -24.6%
20% -33.1% 52% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses888 / 753
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1641 / 1675
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1641 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records