Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafba…cd3c sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$57 (-7%) realized +$304 · open −$361
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$88
14 days−$157
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$375
crypto 24% −$126
other 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 27% -33.0%
≤90d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 27% -33.0%
all 11 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 27% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 27% -33.0%
10% -25.3% 27% -39.4%
15% -32.5% 18% -45.2%
20% -39.1% 18% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$46 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$304
Unrealized−$361
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage14d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $361 $0 −$361 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $74 −$72 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$50 -49%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 05 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $51 +$80 +156%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $21 +$87 +404%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $15 +$5 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $367 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 1¢ $1 19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 50¢ $74 20h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $78 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $30 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $129 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $49 12d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Serbia 52¢ $60 12d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Serbia 43¢ $51 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Minnesota Lynx 84¢ $131 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 32¢ $51 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 13¢ $6 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $15 13d
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 14d
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $1.46 (match) · 22 history records