Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafb4…cece politics 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14
politics 43% −$10
world 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -9.6% -18.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 51 -7.6% -16.4% 2% 0% -9.9%
all 54 -7.2% -16.0% 4% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage243d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $214 −$1 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $210 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $500 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3 −$1 -22%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2 $0 -17%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1 $0 -18%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1 $0 -21%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2 $0 -19%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1 $0 -19%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4 $0 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $376 −$4 -1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 $0 -22%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2 $0 -14%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 $0 -29%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $160 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Lindsey Horvath win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $170 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $159 $0 +0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2 $0 -14%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $2 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 3h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 6h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 11h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 18h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 39h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $190 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records