Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafb3…c5e5
crypto · 363 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$70 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses209 / 147
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)356 / 363
History coverage145d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 356 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$37
14 days−$22
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? No 90¢ 81¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 43¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$58 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $17 $0 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$156
sports 11% +$85
world 1% +$7
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.3% -13.4% 63% 12% -12.5%
≤30d 172 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 13% -10.8%
≤90d 332 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 17% -10.4%
all 356 -2.8% -12.1% 59% 18% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 18% -10.3%
10% -20.5% 13% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 9% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.87 · official $20.87 (match) · 1918 history records