Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xafad…9f54 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
sports 26% +$1
other 21% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 14% -8.4%
all 21 +2.1% -7.6% 62% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 5% -8.4%
10% -16.4% 0% -17.2%
15% -24.5% 0% -25.2%
20% -31.9% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×11.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.52 per $1 lost it wins $37.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage466d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $3 +$1 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) Mar 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $14 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $47 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $24 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $24 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $47 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $34 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $36 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $4 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $2 17d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $44 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $43 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 20d
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) SELL Grizzlies 10¢ $10 91d
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5) BUY Grizzlies $9 91d
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL No 94¢ $88 91d
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY No 93¢ $88 91d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10 353d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records