Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafac…85d6
weather · 87 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$32 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses37 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$26
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? No 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 13 $12 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$6 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 50% −$20
crypto 33% −$13
sports 12% +$1
politics 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 71¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -24.9% -32.0% 39% 30% -30.3%
≤30d 86 -21.1% -28.6% 43% 34% -28.8%
≤90d 86 -21.1% -28.6% 43% 34% -28.8%
all 86 -21.1% -28.6% 43% 34% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 34% -28.8%
10% -35.4% 23% -35.6%
15% -41.7% 15% -41.9%
20% -47.4% 9% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.96 · official $1.96 (match) · 211 history records