Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafac…8730
sports · 226 markets active 17h ago
2.5score
+$14,802 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,618 · open +$184
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$384
Realized+$14,618
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses88 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$4,680
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
Avg bet$1,431
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21,239
7 days+$161
14 days+$6,666
30 days+$13,904
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 31¢ 60¢ $200 $384 +$184 (+92%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 41¢ 0¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Adolfo Vallejo 18¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 20¢ 0¢ $7,004 $0 −$7,004 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Gael Monfils 52¢ 0¢ $5,300 $0 −$5,300 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 48¢ 0¢ $9,824 $0 −$9,824 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 15¢ 0¢ $442 $0 −$442 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima Luca Van Assche 30¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Arthur Fery 42¢ 0¢ $1,500 $0 −$1,500 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 49¢ 0¢ $4,200 $0 −$4,200 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot Elsa Jacquemot 9¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Ella Seidel Ella Seidel 16¢ 0¢ $1,200 $0 −$1,200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler Hanyu Guo 58¢ 0¢ $4,700 $0 −$4,700 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Juan Manuel Cerundolo 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 26¢ 0¢ $565 $0 −$565 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1,366 $0 −$1,366 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2,400 $0 −$2,400 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Kaitlin Quevedo Guiomar Maristany 15¢ 0¢ $244 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $6,202 +$25,027 +404%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $6,419 −$6,300 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $2,034 +$2,512 +124%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $5,312 −$5,200 -98%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $5,098 −$5,000 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5,073 +$4,730 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $4,264 −$4,200 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $3,865 −$3,800 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $4,073 −$4,000 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $2,447 −$2,400 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $5,103 +$10,728 +210%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $1,645 −$1,600 -97%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $5,078 −$5,000 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $4,043 +$2,197 +54%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $6,107 −$6,000 -98%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $3,051 +$3,918 +128%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $5,082 +$5,916 +116%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $3,058 −$3,000 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $659 +$633 +96%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $10,158 +$10,985 +108%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $19,982 +$21,868 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $16,099 −$16,099 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $7,172 −$7,004 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $9,977 −$9,824 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $5,105 −$5,026 -98%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $1,153 −$1,137 -98%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$106 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Yue Yuan vs Robin Montgomery Jun 06 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $815 −$795 -98%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $891 +$1,154 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 05 $511 +$208 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $620 −$16 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $721 +$286 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $82 +$27 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $628 −$613 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $304 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $155 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$55 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $399 +$605 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $451 −$442 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $211 +$343 +162%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $711 +$76 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$25,118
crypto 12% −$7,113
other 1% −$3,204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $102 16h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $102 16h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 19¢ $2,612 21h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 20¢ $3,469 21h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 23¢ $121 21h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY James Duckworth 40¢ $2,443 21h
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth BUY James Duckworth 35¢ $3,976 22h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $2,034 34h
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 28¢ $5,312 2d
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra BUY Lois Boisson 35¢ $5,098 2d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $4,264 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $5,073 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $3,865 2d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $4,073 2d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 35¢ $2,447 2d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Katie Boulter 100¢ $15,831 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 6¢ $514 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova BUY Anna Blinkova 7¢ $1,131 2d
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Gabriel Diallo 48¢ $5,078 2d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 32¢ $5,103 3d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 41¢ $6,107 3d
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson SELL Laura Samson 100¢ $6,970 3d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery SELL Robin Montgomery 100¢ $10,998 3d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 36¢ $3,058 3d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 64¢ $4,043 3d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 45¢ $5,082 3d
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 43¢ $3,051 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 100¢ $1,292 3d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy SELL Panna Udvardy 100¢ $21,143 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 50¢ $659 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -9.4%
≤30d 219 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 37% -5.6%
≤90d 225 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 38% -5.4%
all 225 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 38% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 38% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 34% -14.4%
15% -27.9% 32% -22.7%
20% -34.9% 29% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $383.87 · official $383.87 (match) · 483 history records