Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xafab…5949 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$220 (+7%) realized +$233 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% +$153
other 24% −$19
crypto 14% +$34
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +9.8% -0.6% 80% 70% -1.6%
≤90d 47 +8.3% -2.0% 72% 45% -1.0%
all 50 +6.8% -3.4% 70% 42% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 42% -1.6%
10% -12.6% 16% -11.0%
15% -21.1% 10% -19.6%
20% -28.8% 6% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$233
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Open positions11
Markets (closed)50 / 61
History coverage95d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $69 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $75 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? Yes 87¢ 76¢ $78 $68 −$10 (-13%)
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-4%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 67¢ 37¢ $78 $43 −$35 (-45%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 84¢ 94¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+12%)
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $29 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 64¢ 80¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 11 $93 −$42 -45%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 05 $95 −$1 -2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 05 $123 +$18 +14%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 05 $292 +$27 +9%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M May 28 $38 +$5 +14%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? May 25 $64 +$8 +12%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $21 +$5 +24%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? May 24 $236 +$36 +15%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? May 24 $85 +$26 +30%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 24 $62 +$16 +26%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Ju May 15 $44 +$3 +7%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 10 $212 +$25 +12%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 10 $53 −$7 -14%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 10 $69 +$5 +8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 30 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Mar 29 $4 +$6 +155%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 26 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 25 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 25 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 25 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 25 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $22 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 25 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 25 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 25 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 25 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 25 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 25 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 25 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 25 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 25 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 25 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 24 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 24 $9 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 24 $6 +$8 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 24 $71 +$26 +37%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? Mar 19 $26 −$3 -10%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap Mar 19 $36 +$2 +4%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Mar 19 $15 −$7 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $25 2h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 2h
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 2h
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 82¢ $25 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $51 2h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 2h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 2h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 7d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 38¢ $20 7d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte SELL Yes 68¢ $26 13d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 58¢ $31 13d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Se SELL Yes 70¢ $27 13d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 70¢ $19 13d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 96¢ $45 13d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $162 13d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 13d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 97¢ $25 13d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 14d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 70¢ $20 14d
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 14d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 96¢ $70 14d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a BUY Yes 89¢ $53 15d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 15d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 78¢ $39 15d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $39 15d
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August BUY Yes 69¢ $30 15d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 15d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 81¢ $20 15d
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 15d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 79¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.82 · official $502.43 (match) · 343 history records