Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafaa…f0e4
world · 94 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$814 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$642 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,452
Realized−$642
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)87 / 94
History coverage23d
Avg bet$514
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 9 History 87 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days−$18
14 days−$1,013
30 days−$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,149 $1,158 +$9 (+1%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $201 $209 +$8 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $60 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $15 $3 −$13 (-81%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 46¢ 27¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-76%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-86%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $102 −$105 -103%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,375 −$3 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,091 +$134 +12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $114 +$13 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $424 +$11 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $2,146 +$30 +1%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Jun 12 $28 −$13 -46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$13 -17%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $180 −$64 -36%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 12 $127 +$84 +66%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $4,755 +$405 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,013 −$71 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1,123 −$251 -22%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $22 −$1 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $7 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $114 −$24 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,002 −$133 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $197 −$17 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 09 $107 −$6 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $53 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3,440 +$86 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $32 −$2 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $163 −$3 -2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $194 −$35 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 08 $21 $0 -2%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $63 +$1 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $825 −$61 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 08 $300 −$11 -4%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $172 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 08 $665 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 08 $78 +$4 +5%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $366 −$24 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $63 +$76 +120%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $25 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $477 −$19 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $17 +$1 +8%
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% −$1,408
politics 18% +$868
crypto 11% −$13
other 6% −$14
finance 5% +$13
economics 1% −$4
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $9 6m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $9 6m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $9 7m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $11 10m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 12m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 13m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $408 28m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $327 30m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 34m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 36m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $15 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 42m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $59 50m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $0 52m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $59 52m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $3 52m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $24 57m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 58m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $14 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 51¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $218 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $544 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $318 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $75 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $119 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 8% -9.6%
≤30d 87 +13.2% +2.4% 39% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 87 +13.2% +2.4% 39% 11% -9.0%
all 87 +13.2% +2.4% 39% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 11% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 5% -17.7%
15% -16.3% 5% -25.7%
20% -24.5% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,452.16 · official $1,452.16 (match) · 3500 history records