Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AF 0xafa8…9379 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$168per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%
≤30d	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%
≤90d	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%
all	1	-3.9%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-13.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.1%	0%	-13.1%
10%	-21.4%	0%	-21.4%
15%	-29.0%	0%	-29.0%
20%	-36.0%	0%	-36.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$4 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$292

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$168

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	90¢	87¢	$300	$292	−$8 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	−$4	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	60¢	$97	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-	BUY	36¢	$102	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	90¢	$301	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.80 · official $391.80 · 6 history records