trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $55 | +$15 | +27% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Jun 09 | $30 | +$41 | +136% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,752 | +$780 | +45% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,179 | +$2,284 | +194% |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | May 29 | $1,074 | +$348 | +32% |
| Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026? | May 29 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | May 29 | $268 | −$268 | -100% |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | May 29 | $164 | −$164 | -100% |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 24? | May 29 | $256 | −$256 | -100% |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 30? | May 29 | $289 | −$289 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? | Apr 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 08 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | Feb 20 | $259 | +$1,528 | +591% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? | Feb 19 | $205 | −$101 | -49% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? | Feb 10 | $38 | +$166 | +436% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +100.4% | +81.3% | 100% | 100% | +84.1% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 50% | 50% | +34.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -13.8% | -22.1% | 42% | 42% | +33.9% |
| all | 15 | +54.1% | +39.4% | 47% | 47% | +55.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +39.4% | 47% | +55.7% |
| 10% | +26.1% | 47% | +40.8% |
| 15% | +13.9% | 33% | +27.2% |
| 20% | +2.7% | 27% | +14.7% |