Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafa6…db93
sports · 7 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$7 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 6 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 49¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Finals? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 45¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? No 75¢ 41¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$1
other 29% −$4
world 24% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $11 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $5 17h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $10 17h
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 BUY Yes 87¢ $4 18h
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 18h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 100% +0.1%
≤30d 1 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 100% +0.1%
≤90d 1 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 100% +0.1%
all 1 +10.7% +0.1% 100% 100% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 100% +0.1%
10% -9.5% 0% -9.5%
15% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
20% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.43 · official $23.43 (match) · 8 history records