Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafa6…6b1e world 110 markets active 5h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$11
other 20% −$4
politics 14% $0
sports 11% +$1
crypto 3% +$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 85 +1.0% -8.6% 28% 2% -9.7%
all 108 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 74
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage305d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $26 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $81 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $81 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $74 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $130 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $73 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $135 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $165 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $73 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $263 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $90 −$6 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $170 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $77 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $422 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $87 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $3 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $239 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $219 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $79 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $79 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $80 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $165 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $78 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $166 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $174 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $2 $0 -24%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $90 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $81 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 10 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 10 $170 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $345 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $15 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 63¢ $11 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $26 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $80 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $81 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $81 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $81 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $74 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $47 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $74 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $58 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $58 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $48 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $72 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $79 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $0.00 · 458 history records