Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xafa2…91a5 weather 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-0%) realized −$148 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%242W / 22L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$28
14 days+$71
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$572
crypto 19% +$154
other 11% +$109
world 9% +$49
politics 5% +$105
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% +$2
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 97 +2.4% -7.4% 98% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 154 +1.5% -8.1% 97% 3% -10.7%
all 264 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$45 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$1,627
Realized−$148
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses242 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)264 / 274
History coverage612d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $544 $548 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $455 $457 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $136 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $173 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $543 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $190 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $180 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $628 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $213 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $157 +$1 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,126 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,176 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,436 +$7 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $597 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $583 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $334 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 8? Jun 08 $500 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $98 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $75 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $27 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $455 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,626.76 · official $1,627.59 (match) · 1244 history records