Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AF 0xafa0…5cec other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$601 (-15%) realized −$11 · open −$590
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$508per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.6% -0.9% 100% 0% -0.9%
≤30d 2 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -4.1%
≤90d 2 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -4.1%
all 2 -45.2% -50.4% 50% 0% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 0% -4.1%
10% -55.2% 0% -13.2%
15% -59.5% 0% -21.6%
20% -63.5% 0% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$31 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$3,231
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$590
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage21d
Avg bet$508
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $2,676 $2,117 −$559 (-21%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 83¢ $1,086 $1,051 −$35 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 63¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+8%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $939 +$90 +10%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31? May 28 $32 −$31 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 4h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $81 6h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $97 6h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $75 21h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 29h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $127 39h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $118 42h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $117 46h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 46h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $155 46h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $953 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $76 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $53 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $13 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $21 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 14d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $405 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,230.84 · official $3,230.84 (match) · 59 history records