Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf99…045e crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$69 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$194
other 35% +$191
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% +29.3%
≤30d 34 -1.2% -10.7% 59% 53% -10.0%
≤90d 34 -1.2% -10.7% 59% 53% -10.0%
all 34 -1.2% -10.7% 59% 53% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 53% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 44% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 41% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 29% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$52 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $445 $442 −$3 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $156 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 08 $42 +$61 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $46 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 08 $206 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $207 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $77 +$57 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $127 −$102 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $448 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $454 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $111 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $96 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $42 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $33 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $69 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,006.04 · official $1,006.06 (match) · 94 history records