Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AF 0xaf98…49fa other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-7%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$6
world 17% −$4
politics 18% −$5
sports 14% +$7
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +15.6% +4.6% 31% 31% +15.4%
≤30d 13 +15.6% +4.6% 31% 31% +15.4%
≤90d 13 +15.6% +4.6% 31% 31% +15.4%
all 13 +15.6% +4.6% 31% 31% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 31% +15.4%
10% -5.4% 31% +4.3%
15% -14.5% 31% -5.8%
20% -22.9% 31% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+56%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.82 · official $13.82 (match) · 25 history records