Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf96…ca06
other · 6 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$39 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$41 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$31 +1519%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 +$12 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$8
sports 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 8m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 14m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $111 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $37 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+333.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +379.4% +333.8% 75% 75% +17.0%
≤30d 4 +379.4% +333.8% 75% 75% +17.0%
≤90d 4 +379.4% +333.8% 75% 75% +17.0%
all 4 +379.4% +333.8% 75% 75% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +333.8% 75% +17.0%
10% +292.2% 50% +5.8%
15% +254.3% 50% -4.5%
20% +219.6% 50% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.87 · official $28.87 (match) · 9 history records