Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AF 0xaf95…7b7f crypto 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$26 (+21%) realized +$33 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip

Net edge+65%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+65.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+82.7%	+65.3%	100%	100%	+65.3%
≤30d	1	+82.7%	+65.3%	100%	100%	+65.3%
≤90d	1	+82.7%	+65.3%	100%	100%	+65.3%
all	1	+82.7%	+65.3%	100%	100%	+65.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+65.3%	100%	+65.3%
10%	+49.5%	100%	+49.5%
15%	+35.0%	100%	+35.0%
20%	+21.8%	100%	+21.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +83% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized+$33

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage7d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$31	$24	−$7 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$39	+$32	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$39	3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$32	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.96 · official $73.96 (match) · 11 history records