trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $73 | +$23 (+47%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+2%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 62¢ | $7 | $15 | +$9 (+128%) |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 61¢ | 98¢ | $6 | $10 | +$4 (+61%) |
| Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 62¢ | 57¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 58¢ | 50¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-13%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $2 | −$48 (-95%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $15 | +$6 | +42% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jun 04 | $2 | −$1 | -61% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -30.7% | -37.3% | 33% | 33% | -36.3% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -38.3% | -44.2% | 25% | 25% | -37.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -38.3% | -44.2% | 25% | 25% | -37.6% |
| all | 4 | -38.3% | -44.2% | 25% | 25% | -37.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -44.2% | 25% | -37.6% |
| 10% | -49.5% | 25% | -43.6% |
| 15% | -54.4% | 25% | -49.1% |
| 20% | -58.9% | 0% | -54.0% |