Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xaf93…cd12 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$28
politics 22% −$10
economics 7% −$2
sports 5% +$50
tech 4% −$2
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 113 +2.5% -7.3% 12% 10% -9.5%
all 114 +2.5% -7.3% 11% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 10% -9.5%
10% -16.2% 10% -18.2%
15% -24.3% 8% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
History coverage92d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $231 $230 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $304 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $308 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $402 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $384 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 17 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $347 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $972 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $320 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $324 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $318 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 07 $324 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $319 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $324 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $355 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $345 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $357 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $345 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $345 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $324 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $322 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $680 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $330 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $620 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $231 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $67 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 17d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 19d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 20d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 20d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.87 · official $339.88 (match) · 352 history records