Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xaf91…fe7d world 52 markets active 4h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5
other 20% +$1
politics 17% $0
finance 7% −$1
sports 4% +$11
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% +$5
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.8% -7.0% 40% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 17 -1.7% -11.0% 24% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 -1.6% -10.9% 22% 0% -9.0%
all 52 +0.6% -8.9% 44% 4% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -7.7%
10% -17.7% 4% -16.5%
15% -25.6% 2% -24.6%
20% -32.9% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.2 per $1 lost it wins $6.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage486d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $28 +$2 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $11 +$1 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $74 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Who will get drafted first: Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward? Apr 19 $16 −$1 -4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win The 2025 Masters? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $2 $0 -10%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $27 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Apr 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $29 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday? Mar 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $11 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $11 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $5 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $13 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $6 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $8 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $18 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $16 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $19 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records