Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf8c…02dc sports 29 markets active 4h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-37%) realized −$46 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$29
sports 36% −$5
world 8% −$10
crypto 8% +$1
weather 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 28% -29.1%
≤30d 18 -32.6% -39.0% 33% 28% -29.1%
≤90d 19 -32.7% -39.1% 32% 26% -31.4%
all 23 -39.6% -45.3% 30% 26% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 26% -52.7%
10% -50.6% 22% -57.2%
15% -55.3% 22% -61.3%
20% -59.7% 13% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage165d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 48¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 +$5 +131%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 23 $10 −$3 -35%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31? Jan 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jan 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $2 3h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 53¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 31¢ $2 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $2 5d
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 96¢ $2 5d
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 24¢ $2 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $2 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) BUY PortlandFire 43¢ $2 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 51¢ $2 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $2 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $2 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Chicago Sky 51¢ $2 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 27¢ $2 6d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 92¢ $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 73¢ $2 6d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.89 · official $21.89 (match) · 48 history records