Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf8c…58d1 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$76
politics 33% −$16
sports 8% +$4
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 150 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage121d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $253 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $416 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $406 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $171 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $163 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $449 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $177 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $406 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $243 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $398 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $247 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $196 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $413 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $250 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $238 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 30h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 30h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 45h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 45h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 467 history records