Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf89…5735 crypto 741 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+2%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%374W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$40
14 days+$95
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +1.4% -8.2% 47% 47% -0.1%
≤30d 635 +4.2% -5.8% 51% 49% -6.8%
≤90d 741 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 48% -8.9%
all 741 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 48% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 48% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 46% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 44% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 43% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses374 / 367
Open positions0
Markets (closed)741 / 741
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 741 Trades
no open positions (323 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$9 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1245 history records