Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf89…5923 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 31% −$13
sports 13% −$28
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 136 -3.0% -12.2% 7% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage132d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 23 $435 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $439 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $361 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $369 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $390 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $418 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $352 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $371 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $173 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $227 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $390 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $160 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $227 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $166 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $403 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $19 12h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $171 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $171 27d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 28d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $151 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $151 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 31d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 31d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 31d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 32d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $156 32d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $156 32d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $203 32d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $203 32d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 33d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $209 34d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 34d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 34d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $176 35d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $176 35d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $174 35d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $174 35d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $200 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 426 history records