Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf89…f91f crypto 84 markets active 5d ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$68 (+4%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate68%56W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$66
other 9% −$14
sports 4% +$15
tech 3% +$1
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +15.0% +4.0% 100% 60% -1.8%
≤30d 12 +13.0% +2.2% 100% 50% -4.1%
≤90d 20 +4.6% -5.4% 95% 40% -8.0%
all 82 +8.6% -1.7% 68% 44% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 44% -5.3%
10% -11.1% 33% -14.3%
15% -19.7% 29% -22.6%
20% -27.6% 28% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses56 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage239d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 29 $15 +$1 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 11 $1 $0 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 10 $100 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 04 $67 −$25 -38%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $55 +$11 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 20 $100 +$94 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 20 $242 −$86 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 20 $40 +$38 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 20 $35 +$30 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 20 $35 +$36 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 20 $35 +$33 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 20 $335 +$259 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 20 $20 +$17 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 20 $10 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 20 $1 +$1 +113%
Wizards vs. 76ers Dec 20 $2 $0 +16%
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5) Dec 20 $4 +$3 +63%
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5 Dec 20 $3 +$3 +85%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors: O/U 231.5 Dec 20 $5 +$5 +92%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Kings Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Jazz Nov 26 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 21? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 21 $1 +$1 +104%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Thunder vs. Hornets Nov 21 $6 +$1 +10%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers Nov 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $2 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $3 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $2 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 96¢ $5 35d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 35d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 92¢ $5 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $10 48d
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 99¢ $10 64d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap BUY No 90¢ $1 64d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 93¢ $1 64d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 64d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 97¢ $1 64d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $10 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 106d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 55¢ $41 131d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 168d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $55 169d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.81 · official $17.81 (match) · 161 history records