Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf85…1d68 crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-1%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%95W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$69
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$19
other 23% −$71
world 16% +$16
politics 7% +$11
tech 2% −$14
weather 1% $0
sports 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -24.7% -31.9% 67% 19% -16.9%
≤30d 37 -16.5% -24.4% 78% 11% -11.9%
≤90d 69 -13.0% -21.3% 83% 6% -11.1%
all 111 -7.7% -16.5% 86% 7% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 7% -10.2%
10% -24.5% 5% -18.8%
15% -31.8% 4% -26.6%
20% -38.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses95 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage135d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $130 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? Jun 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 27? May 27 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 20 $140 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? May 14 $140 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 04 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 03 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $137 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 25h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $0 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 98¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $11 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 96¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 71¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $130 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $140 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $140 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $140 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $140 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $140 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $140 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.68 · official $69.68 (match) · 219 history records